What happens next?

With just 3 days left to have your purchase agreement accepted to be eligible for the $8000 and $6500 tax credits, the thought crossed my mind (as I am sure many others in this business), what happens next?

Without a tax credit, will home sales fall in the short term? Will home prices drop as a result? Of course we have no way of knowing for sure but here are my thoughts.

We have something to compare this to. Auto rebates. You see, to me this is very similar and for those who don't know this, I spent nearly 20 years in the auto finance department of car dealerships. So, when I try to envision what will happen next, I look back to a time when a car company came out with a promotion/rebate that generated huge response and try to remember "what happened next"...here is what I think will happen.

Short term sales will drop...quite a bit...but it will rebound fairly quickly and turn out not as bad as you might think. There are a lot of people that have begun the thought process of buying a new home...the wheels are turning if you will...and they will move forward. There is also one very big selling point that will get a lot of people motivated to move.

Moving is contagious.

It's true. Don't believe me? Suppose one of your friends gets some new furniture, a new car, buys a trailer or a boat...it can be anything. Doesn't the thought cross your mind that maybe you should do the same? I know the furniture in my house, the cars in my driveway and the trailer I own are all the result of having a friend buy one first. I recently moved to a new home and I can tell you it got the wheels turning on numerous friends to do the same. One of my friends put an offer in this week and others have said they are seriously considering moving as well.

$8000 or even $6500 is a lot of money and can certainly be a motivating factor but I think an even bigger motivating factor will take over...keeping up with the Jones's! This is the motivating factor that has been selling homes for years. We haven't seen this for quite a while since...well...no one has really been buying homes. My theory is that this tax credit will eventually do exactly what it was set up to do, kick start the market.

So when you are helping one of your friends move this next month or two, I bet the thought of moving to a new home will cross your mind too.